The rise of the far right, a threat and an opportunity for Scottish independence

An opinion poll published this week ought to sound the alarm bells to anyone who values decency, compassion, and humanity in politics. According to an opinion poll carried out by pollsters Find Out Now, Reform UK ltd. Nigel Farage’s hard right English nationalist limited company masquerading as a political party is now neck and neck with the Labour in terms of voting intention, with the Conservatives trailing some way behind. The poll puts Labour and Reform both on 25%, with the Conservatives trailing behind on 20%.

Of course this poll was hailed by the supporters of the far right infesting Elon Musk’s fascist echo chamber formerly known as Twitter as ‘proof’ that Farage was on the way to Number Ten Downing Street. Fieldwork for this poll was carried out before Elon Musk, during one of his all night long bouts of rage tweeting, tweeted that Farage “doesn’t have what it takes” to be leader of Reform and the party needs to choose a new leader. Just hours before, Farage had been confident that his new best buddy Musk was poised to donate $100 million to Farage’s racist vanity project.

Another poll published later in the week, this time carried out by More in Common, placed Labour neck and neck with the Tories, on 26% apiece, this time with Reform trailing behind on 22%. But this is scarcely any more reassuring. 22% is the highest that Reform have ever polled in a More in Common poll. The rise of Reform is driving the Conservatives further and further into the embrace of the far right as they try to stem the haemorrhage of votes and support to a party which is even more insanely right wing than the Tories have become in recent years.

A few points difference in opinion polling asking about voting intention in an election which is not due to be held for a few years does not really tell us a great deal. What perhaps is even more alarming is that the combined voting intention for Reform and a Tory party which will have become a truly far right English nationalist populist party by the time of the next Westminster general election is now considerably higher than support for the Labour party. An electoral alliance between Reform and the Tories would almost certainly see a far right English nationalist government returned to power in the House of Commons.

For supporters of Scottish independence there is a silver lining to this hideous possibility. An opinion poll carried out for The National newspaper over the holiday season found that support for independence would rise to 59% if respondents thought that Nigel Farage was to become the next prime minister. Scots are seemingly more resistant to the dubious charms of the nicotine stained toothy grifter.

Farage has had a spoke put in his wheel by Musk’s decision to speak out against him in a fit of pique after Farage refused to back Musk’s call to support fascist racist thug Stephen Yaxley Lennon, whoever could have thought that a thin skinned narcissist with a habit of rage tweeting racist conspiracy theories and adolescent abuse might turn out not to be the most reliable political ally. But Farage is already trying to repair the damage by sucking up to Musk, saying there are “questions” about Yaxley Lennon’s imprisonment. Yes there are, questions like why was he not jailed sooner and for longer. But the forces of intolerance which Farage has unleashed will coalesce around some other figurehead even if Farage never manages to get back into Musk’s good graces.

The far right is being given a boost by the implosion of a Labour government which promised change it was not capable of and not interested in delivering. Like many others I predicted that Starmer’s promise of change was hollow, and that he would soon become very unpopular indeed, but no one could have foreseen just how rapidly and comprehensively trust in the new government would collapse. People who feel that they have nothing to lose are susceptible to the poisonous racist snake oil of the far right, which blames all problems on immigrants and “the woke” as a cover for its true agenda of massive tax cuts for the super rich who fund its lies and the devastation of public services and regulations which keep the worst excesses of capitalist greed in check.

Having betrayed pensioners, Waspi women, and low income families with more than two kids, Starmer looks set to betray even more groups which traditionally look to Labour to protect them from the Conservatives. The Telegraph is reporting that Number 10 is now planning cuts to disability benefits including PIP. This is a part of what are being reported as “severe spending cuts” of 5%. Reeves is said to be prepared to impose more severe spending cuts on departments if necessary, having already ruled out increasing either borrowing or taxes, because heaven forfend that the rich should have to pay more. Any further spending cuts could be announced in the Chancellor’s planned fiscal statement on March 26, ahead of a spending review that has already required Government departments to find efficiency savings worth 5% of their budgets.

“Read my lips no austerity under Labour,” will come back to haunt Anas Sarwar. Or at least it would if the media in Scotland believed in holding the Labour party to account. The public in Scotland appear to be rather better than BBC Scotland at seeing the reality about the Labour party, and this is translating into increased support for Scottish independence amongst the majority and increasing support for the English nationalists of Reform UK amongst those who cannot countenance supporting Scottish independence under any circumstances.

This gives supporters of Scottish independence a historic opportunity to achieve an unarguable majority for the pro-independence parties at the next Scottish elections both in terms of the number of MSPs returned and vote share. But that will mean nothing unless it is acted upon and action must follow words.

Starmer will of course refuse agree to another independence referendum no matter how many votes and seats the pro-independence parties pile up. The next logical step therefore is for a Scottish Parliament with an unarguable independence mandate to start to put obstacles in the way of Westminster governance. If Westminster refuses to respect the mandate given by the people of Holyrood to Westminster then Holyrood should refuse to respect Westminster. That means, for starters, a refusal to accept the British constitutional fiction that the power of Holyrood flows from the absolute sovereignty of Westminster, and to act and legislate as though the power of Holyrood derives from the democratic legitimacy of the people of Scotland. Obtaining a referendum is likely to mean precipitating a constitutional crisis.

With the rise of the far right, the stakes have never been higher. A far right English nationalist government in Westminster will not hesitate to take authoritarian measures to impose its will on Scotland. But Scotland has a way out, as long as the  SNP and the Greens and any other pro-independence party which succeeds in returning MSPs have the courage to take it.

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