The UK as currently constituted is dying off, Scotland is on a path to independence

For quite some time a definite pattern has emerged from opinion polling on Scottish independence, younger generations are more likely to support Scottish independence than older folk, the oldest generation consistently shows a substantial majority against independence whereas amongst younger people there is majority support for it.

So for example, according to a recent study by Mark McGeoghegan of Glasgow University, people born between 1979 and 1988, who now in their late 30s and early 40s, have a mean probability of supporting independence of 52%. He examined a century’s worth of findings from the from the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (SSAS) in order to discover what effect age has on the relationship with support for Scottish independence, and found that younger voters, those who were born between 1989 and 1998, have a 60% chance of being in support of Scotland’s independence. Amongst those even younger, those born between 1999 and 2007, a huge 70% support independence, it can definitely be said that belief in Scottish independence is the settled will of the younger generations of Scots.

Meanwhile amongst those born before 1958, who are now in their late 60s or older, only 37% support independence. At this juncture, it always needs to be pointed out that these statistical findings categorically do not mean that no older person supports Scottish independence, there are many older people whose support for independence is unwavering. I’m no spring chicken myself, being now firmly in the baldy old man shouting at clouds generation, and I may have dropped an occasional hint about wanting to see Scotland become independent. However what these statistics, which are pretty consistent, do mean is that older people are less likely to support independence.

However the question has always been, given that it’s generally held that people become more conservative and risk averse as they get older, does that mean that younger people who support independence will shift to opposing it as they age? The answer to this question has major implications for the future of the independence movement and for those polling companies which persist in the increasingly questionable methodological practice of weighting their findings on the independence question by the result of an independence referendum which took place eleven years ago. In technical terms is support for independence a cohort effect, that is, baked in to the attitudes and outlook of a particular age cohort, or is it a lifecycle effect, that is, a product of the stage of life the individuals are in and therefore likely to change as they mature and move into new stages of their lives, or is it or a cohort effect mediated by a lifecycle effect? This third possibility would suggest that support for Scottish independence will remain higher amongst those who are currently younger but there may be some drift away from it as they have kids, and settle down. Normally you might add, and buy a house there, but that’s becoming increasingly unattainable for younger people.

After conducting a rigorous study, Mark McGeoghegan has an answer to this question, an answer which will send a shiver down the spine of all dyed in the wool Scottish opponents of independence except Anas Sarwar and Scotland’s Labour MPs, but that’s only because they don’t have a spine between them for a shiver to run down. McGeoghegan has found that support for Scottish independence is indeed a cohort effect. As the present oldest generation dies off and is replaced in the Scottish electorate by people born later, support for Scottish independence is only going to grow. The UK is on borrowed time. In twenty years, or possibly much sooner, support for Scottish independence will be unarguably and indisputably the settled will of the people of Scotland.

This doesn’t mean independence is inevitable, nothing is inevitable in politics, but it does mean that when it comes to making its case to the people of Scotland, the independence movement is pushing against an open door which is opening ever wider with every passing year.

For the polling companies, this finding destroys any remaining justification they may have had for continuing to weight their findings and samples by the results of the 2014 independence referendum. The practice has the effect of artificially inflating the No result, and given McGeoghegan’s findings it is now thoroughly discredited. Any polling company which continues to employ this methodology – we’re looking at you YouGov – is producing inaccurate polls which underestimate the true level of independence support and whose purpose is to generate anti-independence media stories and political ammunition for opponents of independence, not to provide an accurate snapshot of the state of the true state of Scottish public opinion.

As I have previously pointed out in this blog, 550,000 people, overwhelmingly older people who tend to oppose independence, have passed away in Scotland in the eleven years since the 2014 referendum. That’s 14% of the entire electorate eligible to vote in the referendum. They have been replaced in the electorate by younger people who are more likely to back independence and as McGeoghegan has discovered, there is no evidence to suggest they are shifting to No as they age.

It’s worth asking why there is this age related pattern in support for Scottish independence. It appears to correlate with the strength of feeling of Britishness. Older people are more likely to feel they have a British identity as much or more than they have a Scottish identity, while younger people are much more likely to report that they feel primarily or exclusively Scottish and either don’t identify with Britishness at all or it’s far less important to them.

The stronger sense of a British identity amongst older people is doubtless due to the fact that they were born into a UK which still saw itself as a superpower and in which there were many institutions which created and fostered a sense of Britishness, British Rail, British Coal, British Gas, British Telecom, British Airways, etc, all were publicly owned nationalised companies. These were all sold off during the 1980s and 1990s until now the only remaining British institutions other than the Westminster parliament itself are the armed forces, the BBC, and the monarchy, none of which enjoy the same uncritical support that they once did. The monarchy in particular is now lacking in any real majority support in Scotland as evidenced by the lack of public interest in Scotland in royal events.

Older Scots were also born into a Scotland in which the Cringe dominated public perceptions of Scottish culture, Gaelic was dismissed as a Highland irrelevance doomed to an unmourned imminent extinction and Scots was considered as uneducated slang to be stamped out and discouraged. The idea that Scotland could govern itself, never mind be an independent nation, was not taken seriously by mainstream Scottish opinion and the Scottish establishment. Unionism reigned supreme and unchallenged. Scotland was too wee, too poor, and too stupid to look after itself.

Younger Scots do not share these attitudes and are far more likely to have a positive view of Scotland’s ability to govern itself. Those under the age of 30 don’t remember a time without a Scottish parliament. They expect Scotland to be able to make its own decisions.

The UK as it is currently constituted is literally dying off. Support for independence is going to continue to increase over time. Sooner or later, hopefully sooner, support for independence will be the settled will of the people of Scotland and Westminster’s current tactics of delay and ignore will become untenable.

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