Time for a new indy strategy

With the SNP conference about to start and the post mortem of the party’s poor performance in July’s Westminster general election under way, it’s fair to say that there is now general agreement within the wider Scottish independence movement that the independence strategy inherited from Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon is dead. No matter how many or how convincing the mandates piled up in Westminster or Holyrood elections for a second independence referendum, no British prime minister is ever going to facilitate one. The circumstances under which Alex Salmond managed to get David Cameron to agree to a Scottish independence referendum were unique and are unlikely to ever be repeated.

Cameron only agreed to the 2014 referendum because he arrogantly believed that the result would be a No vote of 70% or more which would kill off the issue for good. The final result came as a huge shock to the British establishment, particularly the opinion poll in the days prior to the vote which gave a slight lead to Yes. 2014 gave the British establishment a big scare, but once victory was secured they went back to their default arrogant colonialist arrogance, and that is why independence remains a live issue irrespective of the current electoral woes of the SNP.

No British Prime Minister will ever repeat Cameron’s mistake. As long as there is a chance that Scotland might vote in favour of independence then Westminster will continue to find reasons to refuse another referendum, no matter how convincingly Scots vote in favour of having one. The anti-independence parties will be aided and abetted in this by Scotland’s overwhelmingly anti-independence media, which is determined to keep Scotland a part of the UK, and if that means traducing democracy then so be it. And all the while they will continue to insist that the UK is a voluntary union. They don’t call it Perfidious Albion for nothing.

Had the SNP succeeded in winning a majority of Scotland’s Westminster seats at the recent general election, Keir Starmer would still have rebuffed demands for another independence referendum, Scottish voters understood that and so independence supporters didn’t bother to turn out and vote for the SNP. Vote for us so we can have the door slammed in our face again is not an election winning pitch to the electorate. No wonder the SNP did so badly.

The route to independence that runs through winning a mandate for a referendum and expecting Westminster to implement it is dead. It has been killed by the anti-democratic actions of the Labour and Conservative parties and the shameful failure of the Scottish media to hold them to account for it.

A new strategy is needed, but more than a new political strategy, we need a new political culture. Sterile and rancorous arguments about process are only putting voters off. Some version of the de facto referendum strategy is the only way forward, but that must, as Believe in Scotland have laid out, be preceded with a Scottish Independence Convention which has the goal of involving, energising, and enthusing the grass roots movement and civic Scotland. Independence is bigger than any single political party or politician.

Recognising this is crucial to changing a Scottish political culture which has become entrenched and polarised in recent years. We need to break out of the current impasse and recognise that in a mass movement such as is required to achieve Scottish independence, there are going to be many people with whom you disagree on political, social, and economic issues. It also means that certain individuals need to keep their egos, vendettas and grudges in check. All that does is to give ammunition to those opposed to independence.

That said, I would argue that in order to achieve the maximum support and energy for independence, we need to appeal to and motivate the younger voters who are for the most part already in favour of independence, a group which historically tends not to turn out and vote as much as older people do. The independence parties need to develop policies which resonate with younger people, above all on the climate, housing, and employment and to demonstrate how only independence can deliver the real and meaningful change that Scotland needs, not the false change of Keir Starmer. We need to connect the dots for people, to demonstrate how independence is not a ‘distraction’ from bread and butter issues as Labour and the Tories are so keen to portray it, but rather is key to tackling those important issues.

We also need to find some means of cutting through the constant barrage of negativity from Scotland’s shockingly unrepresentative media. Believe in Scotland’s idea of an independence convention can help in that respect by helping to create a groundswell of grassroots energy and activity that is immune to the anti-independence bias of most of the Scottish media which specialises in miserabilism and woe and ignores all positive and hopeful developments. The Cringe is alive and well in Scotland’s anti independence media.

The SNP also needs to stop pandering to the prejudice and bias of the anti independence media, BBC Scotland in particular, and to stop indulging its pretence that it is a neutral and unbiased reporter on the Scottish political scene when it is in fact an active participant in Scotland’s constitutional debate intervening on the side of the anti-independence parties. There are really three main anti independence parties in Scotland, Labour, the Conservatives, and BBC Scotland.

I would suggest that in that de facto referendum vote there is a clear message from the SNP and all the other independence supporting parties that the Constituency vote is a single issue vote for independence and is a de facto referendum. Out of all the independence parties only the SNP can get elected on the constituency vote, and the other independence parties should unite with the SNP in the constituency vote on a single mandate for independence. Then the list vote can be used for voting for the parties and policies you want to do the day job and run the devolved Scottish government which hopefully will be then negotiating independence with Westminster.

It is not going to be enough to campaign and win a de facto referendum for independence. Westminster will attempt to marginalise, undermine and devalue the result when Scotland votes Yes. Starmer’s government, with its crushing Commons majority obtained on a third of the votes cast, will try and make out that it’s not ‘really’ a vote for independence and will be enabled in that line of argument by BBC Scotland and the rest of the anti independence media, which will suddenly become deeply concerned about the democratic rights of the minority which voted against independence. This is why it is vital to have a mass movement which is energetic and engaged and which can count upon the support of a clear majority of the Scottish population. The SNP cannot mobilise that by itself.

With the support of a mass movement, the pro-independence parties will have the strength to stand up to Westminster and refuse to accept Starmer’s inevitable denial of democracy. This will not be easy, it will entail defiance and political confrontation with the British Government and a Scottish Parliament which insists on its independence no matter what Starmer says.

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